October 26, 2022 (Investorideas.com Newswire) KEY INSIGHTS & TAKEAWAYS
Five capital raise transactions totaling $26.8M closed this week. Two more transactions closed than last week, but volume was down by $29.7M. Four fewer transactions closed than the previous year, and volume declined by $169.8M. This week’s average deal size was $5.4M compared to $21.8M last year.
Cannabis capital raises are off 66.8% YTD.
Total Equity issuance is off 75.6%, and total debt issuance is down 51.4%.
U.S. debt is down only 42.9%, while Canadian debt is down a more significant 78.7%.
At 53.4% of total capital raised, debt remains the highest in history for comparable periods.
Public companies accounted for 73.6% of total financing YTD, down from 78.9% in 2021.
The graph below shows that U.S. activity dominated capital raises for the first forty-two weeks of 2022, with 55.1% of all capital raised.
The U.S. Cultivation & Retail sector has experienced a sharper change in capital raise activity,
Total capital raised is down 69.9%, but equity capital raised is down approximately 96%.
Debt financing is down 39.5% YTD and accounts for about 93% of all capital raised; private companies raised a record 36% of it.
64.0% of total capital raises YTD were completed by public companies compared to 78.9% in 2021.
In 2022, there have been no equity deals above $25M, which has never happened in a comparable period.
Cannabis stock prices (measured by the MSOS ETF) were up 16.02% last week, closing to 7% of their recent highs while still 57% down for the year.
The near-term market importance of Biden’s announcement boils down to the impact it might have on SAFE+ legislation, which remains the only actionable piece of legislation, in our opinion. We think the chances for SAFE+ are helped by the federal pardons and Biden’s urging the states to follow through on additional expungement measures.
We believe that SAFE+ will likely have dramatic, though indirect, impacts on stock prices. Giving banks safe harbor to deal with cannabis companies is likely to lead to increased bank custodial services for cannabis stocks, which we think will eventually lead to greater trading liquidity, a broader investor base, and uplisting.
The merest hint that the Fed might moderate the pace of rate increases has set equity markets on fire. We think the market’s focus on the fed funds rate is misplaced. Ongoing quantitative tightening is where the real work of the Fed is happening, draining the massive pool of excess money supply that has been washing through the financial system for years. And make no mistake, QT is not good for asset prices. Meanwhile, the news cycle borders on bizarre: chaos in British politics and economics, threats of dirty bombs in Ukraine, a crackdown in Chinese politics, and back-to-back multi-hundred-point runs in the major indexes.
Meanwhile, negative industry trends and a tight capital market are pressuring middle and lower-tier cannabis companies. Restructuring news is front and center like we haven’t seen since 2020. These pressures are likely to drive accelerating industry consolidation.
Today’s announcement of forming a US holding company for Canopy Growth’s US assets gives us that “what do they know that we don’t know” feeling. Hiding behind the veil of ownership without voting control seems like a thin reed to maintaining primary exchange listing. Still, Canopy evidently ran this idea past the exchanges and got it pre-approved. It raises the question of whether US MSOs could use the same maneuver as a path to up-listing. In the end, we have to give credit to Canopy for its legal inventiveness. How different the cannabis world might be if Canopy’s business strategists were as sharp as its lawyers!
YTD Returns by Public Company Category
U.S. tier-one MSOs gained six places in our ranking of YTD stock performance, swapping places with a deteriorating Psychedelics sector.
The market is still strongly differentiating between MSOs, and the gap in the last twelve-week stock performance between the best performer (GTI (GTII: CSE) up 26.9%) and the worst (TerrAscend (TER: CSE) down 32.2%) has widened to 59 points.
Best and Worst Performers of the last week and YTD
California-based Unrivaled (UNRV: OTC) and Glass House (GLASF: OTC) repeated their performance among the week’s top cannabis stocks.
AYR Wellness (AYR.A: CSE) has been one of the top ten performers for three weeks. The company had become too cheap for investors to ignore and is also a potential takeout candidate.
Two companies on the loser list this week, Tilt (TILT: CSE) and StateHouse (STHZ: CSE), also appeared on our Chart of the Week screening for companies with low liquidity and high market leverage ratios.
The Week’s Largest Closed Equity Transaction:
On October 191, 2022, Empyrean Neuroscience (Privat) closed a Series A funding round for $22M.
Empyrean is attempting to use genetic engineering techniques to modify the genomes of fungi and plants to change the amount and kind of neuroactive molecules they produce, intending to develop treatments for CNS disorders.
The company’s initial focus is on Major Depressive Disorder, but it plans extensions to PTSD, substance abuse, and chronic pain.
Proceeds will fund the development of therapeutics.
Public Company Raises:
Four of the five companies that raised capital this week were public. All four trade in Canada (two on the CSE, one on TSX, and one on NEO) and in the U.S. (one on OTCQX, one on OTCQB, and two on OTC.)
Equity vs. Debt Cap Raises:
Equity accounted for 99.1% of this week’s capital raises.
Debt accounted for 28% of trailing 4-week capital raises, below its LTM average of 61%. Intriguingly, debt has only accounted for about 29% of capital raises over the last twelve weeks. Everything would seem to point in the other direction. Raising equity has become a heavy lift, and most companies would prefer not to sell at prices hovering around 52-week lows. The talk of banking reform and rescheduling/descheduling would also seem to rule out doing an equity issue. After all, which finance officer wants to raise equity at the lows only to see the market scream upward after the passage of SAFE? The answer, we believe, is that lenders have become more cautious, taking a harder look at business plans and collateral valuation. Perhaps we see equity raises because reasonable debt terms are no longer available to many companies. Does that also explain the recent preponderance of PIPEs?
The Week’s Largest Debt Raise:
On October 21, 2022, Trees Corporation Canada (TREES: NEO), a $1.4M market cap Canadian company with 13 Trees branded storefronts in Canada, closed a non-brokered private placement of 200 units for gross proceeds of approximately US$145,700.
Each unit consists of a $1000 face amount 3-year convertible note with a 12% coupon, a conversion price of US$.0109 (50% premium), and 66,667 warrants with the same exercise price.
The warrants and conversion features combine to produce total coverage of 200%. However, the relatively high premium of 50% limits the value of the embedded options. The effective cost of the package is 16.88%, which strikes us as excellent execution for a small retail-oriented Canadian company with $7M of LTM revenues, nearly $6.7M of negative EBITDA, and $9M of Debt and Leases.
MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS
One M&A transaction closed this week with a no disclosed transaction value compared to two transactions for $72.48M in the prior year.
Total YTD M&A volume is down 80.5% from 2021, with $4.72B in consideration and 14 deals closed versus $23.89B in transaction value and 273 closings in 2021.
Last year’s total included two of the largest M&A transactions ever done in cannabis, the $4.5B Tilray acquisition of Aphria and the $7.2B Jazz Pharma acquisition of GW Pharma. Without the two megadeals mentioned above, the volume in 2022 would trail 2021 by 61.3% YTD.
We believe the likelihood of relatively sizeable public/public M&A transactions has increased significantly based on the low trading multiples of tier 2 and 3 MSOs and SSOs, particularly those perceived to be cash flow pressured.
U.S. volume is down 67.5% YTD, with 40.8% fewer transactions.
The average transaction size of $34.3M is down 45.1% from 2021. Still, 2022’s average is expected to grow as large public/public transactions like Cresco/Columbia Care close in the 4th quarter.
Major Pending Deals Risk Arb
The Cresco/Columbia deal spread widened by 260 bp to 15.8% on 10/21/22. Doubtlessly, the collapse of the Verano/Goodness Growth deal was an influence in the spread widening. However, we believe this transaction has a broader basis. Cresco’s motivation to purchase Columbia Care is not primarily based on the latter’s NY assets, the value of which is no longer clear.
The valuation gap widened 72bp to 3.62 on 10/21/22, still below its 3.96 LTM average. The valuation gap is the difference between the EV/NTM EBITDA multiple for the largest MSOs and the multiple for the less than $300M market cap group, which are their primary targets.
This measure has been a significant driver of M&A activity since a larger gap creates an opportunity for more accretive transactions. The gap tends to increase in improving markets while declining in retreating markets.
A gap of over 4 points is conducive to accretive transactions between the largest MSOs and smaller competitors. At the same time, a tighter financing market makes it more challenging for small companies to finance the growth of their business.
We note that the gap is based on trading prices and not on values where a company could raise significant amounts of capital. The difference is crucial because one of the key drivers we see for accelerating M&A activity is the inability of smaller companies to finance themselves in the current cannabis capital markets.
The Largest M&A Deal of the Week:
On October 17, 2022, The Healing Company Inc. (HLCO: OTC), an emerging health and wellness company, acquired Your Super, a leading plant-based superfoods brand.
The acquisition was financed through cash and Healing Company common stock.
The exact consideration amount and makeup of the transaction were not disclosed.
VIEW DEAL TRACKERS
The Viridian Capital Chart of the Week highlights key investment, valuation and M&A trends taken from the Viridian Cannabis Deal Tracker.
Launched in January 2015, and having analyzed more than $60B in deals, the Viridian Cannabis Deal Tracker is a proprietary data service that monitors and analyzes capital raise and M&A activity in the legal cannabis and CBD industries. Each week the Deal Tracker provides proprietary data and market intelligence on transactions, including:
Deals by Industry Sector (To track the flow of capital and M&A Deals by one of 12 Sectors – from Cultivation to Brands to Software)
Deal Structure (Equity/Debt for Capital Raises, Cash/Stock/Earnout for M&A)
Principals to the Transaction (Issuer/Investor/Lender/Acquirer)
Key Deal Terms (Deal Size, Valuation, Pricing, Warrants, Cost of Capital)
Deals by Location of Issuer/Buyer/Seller ( To Track the Flow of Capital and M&A Deals by State and Country)
Credit Ratings (Leverage and Liquidity Ratios)
*Copyright (C) 2021 by Viridian Capital Advisors
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher. No part of this material may be (I) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (II) redistributed without Viridian’s prior written consent.
The information contained herein is for informational purposes and is not intended as a research report. It should not be construed as Viridian recommending investment in cannabis companies or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in cannabis companies entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Viridian Capital Advisors and its affiliates, as well as their respective partners, directors, shareholders, and employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time. Viridian Capital Advisors, through broker-dealer services provided by Bradley Woods & Co. Ltd., (Member FINRA/SIPC), may act, or may have acted in the past, as a financial advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.
The above information whether in part or in its entirety neither constitutes an offer nor makes any recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
About Viridian Capital Advisors, LLC
Viridian Capital Advisors (www.viridianca.com) is a financial and strategic advisory firm dedicated to the cannabis market. We are a data- and market intelligence-driven firm that provides investment, M&Amp;Amp;A, corporate development, and investor relations services to emerging growth companies and qualified investors in the cannabis sector. Our banking practice, through broker-dealer Bradley Woods & Co. Ltd. (Member FINRA/SIPC), provides capital and M&Amp;Amp;A services to fund the growth of our clients, while our advisory practice helps to position and build their businesses. Our team’s decades of high level operating and transactional experience on Wall Street in a variety of emerging sectors, allows Viridian to provide comprehensive strategic and financial solutions that assist cannabis enterprises in realizing their full potential.
Marijuana remains illegal under federal law. The federal government does not recognize marijuana to have any medicinal value. Marijuana cultivation, possession, consumption, sales, and distribution are illegal under federal laws and also certain state laws. Investors in cannabis may be subject to law enforcement actions. Please note that there are differences in marijuana laws from one state, county, or city to another. Furthermore there are substantial risks associated with investing in cannabis companies, including, without limitation, changes in applicable laws, rules, and regulations, risks associated with the economic environment, the financing markets, and risks associated with a company’s ability to execute on its business plan.
Viridian Capital Advisors, LLC
Disclaimer/Disclosure: Investorideas.com is a digital publisher of third party sourced news, articles and equity research as well as creates original content, including video, interviews and articles. Original content created by investorideas is protected by copyright laws other than syndication rights. Our site does not make recommendations for purchases or sale of stocks, services or products. Nothing on our sites should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell products or securities. All investing involves risk and possible losses. This site is currently compensated for news publication and distribution, social media and marketing, content creation and more. Disclosure is posted for each compensated news release, content published /created if required but otherwise the news was not compensated for and was published for the sole interest of our readers and followers. Contact management and IR of each company directly regarding specific questions.
More disclaimer info: https://www.investorideas.com/About/Disclaimer.asp Learn more about publishing your news release and our other news services on the Investorideas.com newswire https://www.investorideas.com/News-Upload/ and tickertagstocknews.com