by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2022 09:12:00 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September (“September” is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Decline in September
divisions, reported a 10.6% annual gain in September, down from 12.9% in the previous month. The
10-City Composite annual increase came in at 9.7%, down from 12.1% in the previous month. The 20-
City Composite posted a 10.4% year-over-year gain, down from 13.1% in the previous month.
Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in
September. Miami led the way with a 24.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in
second with a 23.8% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 17.8% increase. All 20 cities reported lower
price increases in the year ending September 2022 versus the year ending August 2022.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -1.0% month-over-month decrease in
September, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -1.4% and -1.5%,
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.8%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.2%.
In September, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments.
“As has been the case for the past several months, our September 2022 report reflects short-term
declines and medium-term deceleration in housing prices across the U.S.,” says Craig J. Lazzara,
Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index fell -1.0% in September,
and now stands 10.6% above its year-ago level. We see comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City
Composites, which declined -1.4% and -1.5%, respectively, bringing their year-over-year gains down to
9.7% and 10.4%. For all three composites, year-over-year gains, while still well above their historical
medians, peaked roughly six months ago and have decelerated since then.
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is down 1.2% in September (SA).
The Composite 20 index is down 1.2% (SA) in September.
The National index is 62% above the bubble peak (SA), and down 0.8% (SA) in September. The National index is up 119% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 9.7% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 10.4% year-over-year.
The National index SA is up 10.6% year-over-year.
Annual price increases were lower than expected. I’ll have more later.