by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2023 11:22:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Continued to Decline” to 7.7% year-over-year increase in November
The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices. September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data.
The MoM decrease in the Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% seasonally adjusted. This was the fifth consecutive MoM decrease, and a slightly larger decrease than in October.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis (Detroit increased 0.1%). The largest monthly declines seasonally adjusted were in San Francisco (-1.4%), Phoenix (-1.4%) and Las Vegas (-1.2%). San Francisco has fallen 11.9% from the peak in May 2022 and is the first Case-Shiller city with a year-over-year decline (-1.6% year-over-year).
The November report was mostly for contracts signed in the July through October period – and was likely impacted slightly by the surge in rates in October.
The impact from higher rates in October and November will really show up in the Case-Shiller index over the next several months.