by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2022 04:44:00 PM
A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:
We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in July (mom sa) … The July seasonal factors have become significantly more restrictive–even more so than in June–and the seasonal adjustment algorithm may be overfitting to the reopening-related job strength in the summers of 2020 and 2021. … We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% in July …
CR Note: The consensus is for 250 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.