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Goldman July Payrolls Preview


by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2022 04:44:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in July (mom sa) … The July seasonal factors have become significantly more restrictive–even more so than in June–and the seasonal adjustment algorithm may be overfitting to the reopening-related job strength in the summers of 2020 and 2021. … We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% in July …
emphasis added

CR Note: The consensus is for 250 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.

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