by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 08:41:00 AM
Active inventory decreased last week. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter):
Altos reports inventory is down 2.5% week-over-week and down 9.6% from the peak on October 28th.
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 16th, inventory was at 522 thousand (7-day average), compared to 535 thousand the prior week.
Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 60.2% from 326 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 15.0% from 454 thousand. However, compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 35.0% from 804 thousand.
Here are the inventory milestones I’ve been watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ?
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ?
3. Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ?
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 35.0%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.
A key will be if inventory declines slower than usual during the winter months.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.