by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2023 09:16:00 AM
Altos reports inventory is down 3.4% week-over-week and down 15.0% from the peak on October 28, 2022.
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 30th, inventory was at 491 thousand (7-day average), compared to 508 thousand the prior week. Inventory has declined sharply over the holidays.
The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
The red line is for 2022. The black line is for 2019.
Inventory was at a record low in early 2022 and was up compared to the same week in 2021 as of May 20, 2022.
Inventory was up compared to the same week in 2020 as of October 7, 2022, however, inventory will start well below 2020 levels in early 2023.
Currently inventory is up 67.3% year-over-year, and down 35.7% compared to 2019.
A key will when inventory starts increasing in 2023 (the bottom is usually in February of each year).
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.