by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2023 10:09:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 616 thousand.
The previous three months were revised down sharply.
An estimated 644,000 new homes were sold in 2022. This is 16.4 percent below the 2021 figure of
771,000.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply decreased in December to 9.0 months from 9.2 months in November.
The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).
In December 2022 (red column), 47 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in November.
The all-time high for December was 87 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for December was 23 thousand in 2010.
This was at expectations of 614 thousand SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised down sharply. I’ll have more later today.
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