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Q1 GDP Tracking


by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2023 03:42:00 PM

From BofA:

The trade deficit in January widened to $68.3bn, the widest deficit in the last three
months. Exports increased by 3.4% m/m while imports went up by 3.0%. This increased
our tracking estimate for bothexports and imports, while reducing our estimate fornet
exports in 1Q. On net, since the last weekly publication, this pushed down our 1Q US GDP
tracking estimate from 0.9% q/q saar to 0.7% q/q saar. [Mar 10th estimate]emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.0% (qoq ar). We also left our domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Mar 8th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent on March 8, up from 2.0 percent on March 7. [Mar 8th estimate]

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