Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 1.5%

On net,this week’s data initiated our 1Q US GDP tracking estimate at 1.5% q/q saar, somewat above our official forecast of 1.0%. The data also reduced our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.2% q/q saar to 2.9%. [Feb 17th estimate]emphasis added

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.4% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +1.9%. We also left our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q4 unchanged at +3.0%, compared to +2.9% as originally reported. [Feb 16th estimate]

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on February 16, up from February 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -10.4 percent to -8.1 percent. [Feb 16th estimate]