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Q1 GDP Tracking: Close to 2%


by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2023 12:59:00 PM

From BofA:

Our GDP tracking estimate fell by two-tenths to 1.3% q/q saar since our last update [Feb 23rd estimate] (estimate before personal spending and New Home sales reports).emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following stronger-than-expected personal spending and new home sales in January, we boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.8% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales forecast by the same amount to +2.3%. [Feb 24th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.7 percent on February 24, up from 2.5 percent on February 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.6 percent and -6.0 percent, respectively, to 3.8 percent and -5.3 percent. [Feb 24th estimate]

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