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Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range


by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2023 10:33:00 AM

From BofA:

On net, since the last weekly publication, this pushed up our 1Q US GDP tracking
estimate from 0.7% q/q saar to 0.9% q/q saar and left 4Q unchanged at 2.9% q/q saar. [Mar 17th estimate]emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.6% (qoq ar). [Mar 16th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 3.2 percent on March 16, unchanged from March 15 after rounding. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real net exports was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth. [Mar 16th estimate]

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