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Q3 2022 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate


by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2022 02:46:00 PM

The BEA released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report on Friday.

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 3.7% annual pace in Q3. Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q3 compared to Q2 and was up 22% year-over-year.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP.

Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q3 and was down 1.3% year-over-year. And still declining as a percent of GDP.

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 16% year-over-year in Q3 – from a very low level. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.

Lodging investment increased in Q3 compared to Q2, and lodging investment was up 6% year-over-year.

All three sectors – offices, malls, and hotels – were hurt significantly by the pandemic.

The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes).

Investment in single family structures was $438 billion (SAAR) (about 1.7% of GDP) and was unchanged year-over-year.

Investment in multi-family structures was up in Q3 from Q2.

Investment in home improvement was at a $335 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q3 (about 1.3% of GDP). Home improvement spending was strong during the pandemic but has declined as a percent of GDP recently.

Note that Brokers’ commissions (black) increased sharply as existing home sales increased in the second half of 2020 but was down in Q3 2022. Brokers’ commissions were down 15% year-over-year in Q3 (and down sharply as a percent of GDP).

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