Q4 GDP Tracking

We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.7% (qoq ar), reflecting a larger contribution from inventories but slower consumption growth.emphasis added [Dec 23rd estimate]

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.7 percent on December 23, up from 2.7 percent on December 20. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. [Dec 23rd estimate]